As Iran War Enters Its Sixth Month, Trump Weighs a Deal, a Blockade, or a Bigger War

Over a single weekend, the United States lurched from the brink of its largest air assault in a generation to the promise of peace talks — and then to a public argument over whether those talks even exist.

On Saturday, Aug. 1, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. was "locked and loaded and ready to go" against Iran at "levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II." By Sunday, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said he had called off strikes he claimed "would have been the biggest attack since World War II," pressed by Gulf allies, and that a deal was "imminent" — one covering the Strait of Hormuz and "ultimately, the denuclearization of Iran." Talks, he said, would begin Monday afternoon.

By Monday, Tehran had poured cold water on the whole thing. "We currently do not have negotiations with America," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters, insisting Iran's only discussions were with Oman over shipping. Trump, back on Truth Social, branded Iran's leadership "unbelievably duplicitous," saying officials "beg" for talks and then deny them. The Washington Post called it "a weekend of whiplash" — a fitting snapshot of a war now grinding through its sixth month with no clear end.

A war that keeps not ending

The conflict began Feb. 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched a sweeping campaign that, according to Britannica's account of the war, killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in its opening salvo. A June memorandum of understanding was meant to wind things down, but it collapsed in early July in a dispute over the Strait of Hormuz — through which the U.S. Energy Information Administration says oil flows averaged about 20.9 million barrels a day, roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption. Iran had militarized the strait; Washington accused it of attacking commercial ships; strikes and counterstrikes resumed.

By Pentagon figures compiled by CNN, at least 18 to 20 U.S. service members have been killed and more than 600 wounded. After a "heavy wave" of strikes against Revolutionary Guard targets on July 29–30, Washington paused. Iran's army claimed a retaliatory drone strike on a U.S. air base in Kuwait, which Kuwaiti authorities had not confirmed.

The strategy under strain

The administration insists it is on course. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said U.S. aims are "not utopian" and dismissed talk of an "endless war." Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in congressional testimony, laid out firm conditions: reopening Hormuz, surrender of Iran's highly enriched uranium, and long-term nuclear restrictions before any sanctions relief.

But the goalposts have moved. Rubio predicted in late March the campaign would conclude "in a matter of weeks." A July 28 White House meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid three options on the table, per a senior Israeli official quoted by Reuters: "a deal, continuing the blockade and economic pressures, and a massive strike." Netanyahu expressed no preference — "in the end, it's his decision," the official said.

The domestic bill comes due

At home, the war has become a political weight. Trump's approval hit record lows this summer — 32% in a Quinnipiac poll and 33% in an AP-NORC survey. Tellingly, Republican approval of his Iran handling slid from 71% to 61% in a month, per AP-NORC. Gasoline averaged $4.09 a gallon, AAA reported — nearly a dollar higher than a year earlier.

The Senate has repeatedly voted on war powers resolutions; the latest, led by Sens. Adam Schiff, Tim Kaine and Chuck Schumer, failed 50-49 on July 30. And Trump faces a revolt on his own flank: former Fox host Tucker Carlson called the war "disgusting and evil," and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene accused Trump of a "bait and switch" on his "no more foreign wars" pledge. With the Nov. 3 midterms looming, Brookings analysts note the war has brightened Democratic prospects and fractured Trump's 2024 coalition.

What the experts see

Assessments diverge sharply. Carnegie Endowment's Aaron David Miller warned that if the war ended today, "it would be a major strategic defeat by the administration's own metrics." Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman framed Trump's choice as picking "the lesser of three unattractive options." Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour argued the campaign may have "breathed new life into this zombie regime."

Defenders push back. Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies insists "the United States of America is winning," citing degraded Iranian nuclear and missile programs — though he faults the diplomacy, likening the collapsed MOU to a document "translated by ChatGPT into English."

What to watch

The Iran–Oman track on Hormuz is the likeliest near-term off-ramp. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Aug. 2 the talks were "on the way to being finalized," with Baghaei describing a new corridor "neither the northern route nor the southern route." Yet Tehran insists the strait will never return to its pre-war status. Watch oil prices, the fate of Saudi Arabia's proposed Red Sea shipping coalition, and whether Trump reverts to the "massive strike" option. As Crisis Group's Ali Vaez put it, the collapse of even a minimal understanding "could remove the last barrier between episodic confrontation and a forever war."